STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 21 8:30pm: Sorry for the late update. Tomorrow will bring precipitation with a fast moving system. It will be cold enough in our area to start as snow and the heaviest will be between 11am-12pm in Bucks County. It will move quickly, and accumulate 1-2 inches in most of Bucks County. The warm front will be followed by warmer temperatures, so there may be a changover to rain as the system moves out and things will begin to melt. It will move out of our area around 4-5pm.
STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 18 10:30am: As I look at the weather reports, they are talking about large amounts of snow extending into Friday. I do not see this in the models. It looks like this system will clear out tonight. Tomorrow may bring isolated light snow showers in some areas, but nothing significant. The models below show the precipitation at 10am Friday (left) and 1pm Friday (Right). You can see that it is clear over our area.
STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 17 11:25am: The models have shifted slightly since yesterday. The system pushed slightly south, which is what I said would bring higher snow totals to us since it will pull the colder air south. That means there will be more steady snowfall throughout Bucks County. In the southernmost areas of Bucks, there will be some mixing in the midst of the storm since the increased upper level temperatures will begin to creep up. The height of the storm will also be later than I stated yesterday. Northern Bucks will see some precipitation starting around 7-8am, but the heart of the storm will arrive between 11am-1pm from the north to south. Lower and Middle Bucks will receive more snow than expected yesterday and should get 6-9 inches with Upper Bucks slightly higher at 8-10. Below is the NAM showing the height of the storm at 1pm. Most of the system will clear out in the early evening.
STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 16 5:20pm: If you haven't had enough snow, you will be happy with the current models. Tomorrow, cold air will move in without bringing any precipitation. Thursday, a cold front will bring us precipitation. As of now, the models are showing it begining in Bucks County between 7-8am. It will start as a gradual snowfall and intesify through the morning hours with the heart of the storm hitting us around 10-11am. There is a distinct line that separates snow totals. The lowest area of Bucks will have a turnover to sleet/rain, but middle and upper Bucks will stay cold enough to keep the snow falling. Since we are two days out, the slightest change in the course of the storm could dramatically affect totals, so things may change by tomorrow. For now, it looks like 2-4 inches for Lower Bucks and 5-7inches for Middle and Upper Bucks. As I said, things could change dramatically. If the system pushes north, we could get all rain, but if it shifts to the south and keeps the cold air in place, we could get more snow. Here is a GFS modol of the snow totals for Thursday showing 6-9 inches for our area.
STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 15 5:30pm: Things have changed since this morning. It looks like the warmer air is going to move in a little bit sooner. I still think that we will get some freezing tonight, but after midnight, the warmer air will move in. It is more likely that Tuesday morning will be more of a wet event rather than ice.
STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 15 11:25am: The last storm turned out to be a flop as the expected precipitation never reached the ground in significant amounts. This next system will bring those significant amounts. The question to be answered with this one is, will the surface temperatures remain cold enough to cause icing. The area of low pressure will be moving in this afternoon with clouds and spotty precipitation falling in parts of Bucks County. By 6pm, it will intensify and by 10 pm, we will see the start of the heavy precipitation. Overnight and into Tuesday morning will be the worst, and it will leave our area between 8-10am on Tuesday. Now for the temperatures. The upper level temperatures will remain below freezing. What that means is that the precip will be frozen as it falls. The surface temps will fluctuate as the storm passes. This is a warm front. That means the air behind the storm is warmer and temperatures will rise. During the storm, however, the temps will be at or below freezing at the surface and can cause significant icing through the night and into tuesday morning. Temps will begin to rise through Tuesday and will melt ice, especially on dark road surfaces. The map on the left shows the precipitation at 10pm tonight, the map on the right shows the surface temperatures below freezing, which will result in icing.
STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 12 6:30pm: This weekend's storm will bring somewhat of a mess. The temperatures appear to be fluctuating just around freezing as the storm rolls in and as it passes through. That said, it will bring a mix of snow and sleet. Spotty patches will begin to appear in the northern parts of Bucks County around 1pm on Saturday, and the precipitation will be throughout Bucks by 4pm. As the storm passes through, there will be a change over to rain, then temps will drop later in the evening as the storm moves out late Saturday into Sunday morning around 1am. If the temps drop as they appear to be showing, black ice on the roads is possible early Sunday morning.
STORM UPDATE FEBRUARY 6 8:40am: As we are still shoveling out from the last storm, another is on its way. This one will not bring the intensity or duration of the last one, but is carrying significant moisture, and the temperatures will be cold enough for it to be snow. It will be moving from southwest to northeast across our area tomorrow. South and west of us, it will begin around 5am, and will reach our area around 6-7am. The most intense snowfall will be between 12-2pm. It will move out around 4-5pm on Sunday. Snow totals will be 3-7 inches throughout Bucks County. The higher amounts will fall in the most southern parts of Bucks County. Northampton Township should see 3-5 inches. The models are still not in agreement with the snow totals. I have included three of them below (NAM, GFS and EURO). The EURO is the outlier showing a much larger snow event.
STORM UPDATE: Yesterday, the NAM, GFS and EURO were not in agreement. The GFS and EURO were predicting a significant snow event while the NAM was keeping it southwest of us. That is not unusual 4 days out from the storm. Today, it looks like the NAM has come more in line with the others. That is a sign the we may be in for something. As always, the new runs will tell something more definitive. For now, they are showing 3-5 inches for our area with a higher area of precipitation just to our south. If upcoming models show a northward shift, we get much more. See the image below, you can see PA just above the blue which represents significantly more moisture. The models later today and this evening will tell us more. I will update this page within the hour, when the latest model is finished updating. Thanks!
Update 9:50pm 1/29/2021: The NAM and the GFS have changed a bit with the current run. The system appears to be moving slightly north. This means more precipitation, and the temperatures are low enough for all of it to be snow. The NAM has the system arriving Sunday early evening and the GFS has it starting earlier, around 1pm. There is also a difference in snow totals between the two, but both are predicting significant amounts of snow falling Sunday through monday. The NAM is showing 4-7 inches in Central to Upper Bucks County and 5-10 inches in Lower Bucks County. The GFS is showing slightly higher amounts due to it's prediction of the storm moving farther north. The image below shows the color enhanced image. The darker blue in Bucks is the 5-10 inch range, and the lighter blue is
the 4-7 inch range.
Update 11:00am 1/20/2021: This is one of those systems where small changes in it's path result in large differences in snow totals for various areas. If the storm tracks a little west, we get more snow, if it tracks farther east and off the coast, areas east of the I95 cooridoor and south get more snow. The models seem to be indicating that we are going to get the brunt of it. Some models, like the NAM indicate that we will get up to 17.5 inches. If you look at the image below, it shows the NAM. The yellow area in Bucks County indicates 15-17.5 inches, the light green area indicates 12.5-15, and the dark green in far Upper Bucks and far Lower Bucks indicates 10-12.5. The storm will start with slow steady snowfall in our area Sunday afternoon around 5pm. It will intensify overnight into the early hours of Monday morning. On Monday, the snow will continue with a brief period slower snowfall followed by heavy snowfall in the late afternoon. Overnight Monday, the tail end of the system moves out and we will be cloudy most of Tuesday. As I look at all the models and ensembles, I don't think we will get the 17.5 inches that the NAM is forecasting, but I do think we will get 10-12 at this point. If the course changes, snow totals will also, I will keep you updated.
UPDATE 8:30am 1/31/2021: The system continued to shift west resulting in more snowfall for our area since the last update, with the models showing ridiculous amounts. The EURO, NAM and GFS are all showing 12+ inches for much of Bucks County. Be prepared for power outages and staying home through tuesday to allow for plows and cleanup. The map below shows the EURO. The one on the left shows snow totals for the state, the one on the right is zoomed in on Bucks County.
UPDATE 9:55am 1/31/2021: My forecast is based on a combination of the models shown below. Lower Bucks should recieve the least amount of snow in Bucks County. That said, the area should still recieve 5-7 inches, Middle Bucks 6-10 and Upper Bucks 10-12.